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Subject: lucky film
Date: 2011-09-23 07:44:06
From: Don Lopp

For what it is worth,on CCTV9, Beijing, this morning,the general manager
of Lucky Films said that their film division had reduced employment from
500 down to 30, as they were switching to producing film for solar
batteries instead of for photography.

DON

Subject: Re: lucky film
Date: 2011-09-23 08:23:25
From: JR

Thank you for that information, Don.    That is not good news at all.    The hope in the industry has been that as manufacturing costs go up (mainly due to reduced production), and manufacturers in areas of higher labor costs could no longer afford to make the product, the slack would be taken up in places like China.   Now the backup seems to be disappearing.    Even 500 is not enough personnel to maintain a sustainable worldwide production.

Although film manufacturing is not as labor-intensive as many products, there still are people needed in such areas as packaging and distribution.   And, coating and cutting machines need to be maintained.   Plus, many of the operations must be done in a dust-free controlled atmosphere environment. And, the clerical office staff required is not insignificant, due to the complexity of the distribution pattern (although that is getting less as the number of retailers is reducing). All of which points away from a minimal staff for operations.

As volumes drop, costs go up.   As film gets more and more expensive, less and less people buy it, which further drives the downward spiral.

I try to remain optimistic, but it is difficult in the face of the numbers.

JR

On Fri, Sep 23, 2011 at 7:08 AM, Don Lopp <dlopp@rainier-web.com> wrote:

For what it is worth,on CCTV9, Beijing, this morning,the general manager
of Lucky Films said that their film division had reduced employment from
500 down to 30, as they were switching to producing film for solar
batteries instead of for photography.

DON

--
stereoscope3d@gmail.com

Subject: Re: lucky film
Date: 2011-09-23 08:49:21
From: Bill G

> Thank you for that information, Don. That is not good news at all.
>

But remember Kodak is still producing film in USA..... since
they own nearly half of LUCKY film, the premise is, when Kodaks volume drops too low for
USA production, their assets move to LUCKY films, and LUCKY will produce KODAK film for
the world. Its a logical progression in a declining market.....

However, I fully agree with your downward spiral
comments..... lower volume = higher cost = less users = higher costs, etc. etc....
Kodak has a history of changing their minds.... they bought into the LUCKY concept many
years ago. Market conditions may have changed so fast, they might consider running
Rochester plants till volume falls too low, and just cease operations and never take the
LUCKY exit strategy. This would keep Fuji in the game a bit longer, with free reign on
pricing.

Regardless, the decline of cinema film which is mostly
dependent on the speed in which theaters convert to digital (spurred on by the big studios
forcing their hand), will dictate films ultimate demise. It really is remarkable how a
new technology can wipe out an entire century of advances in film.... and prob. in a
period of less than 20 years.... this will be a taught in business colleges long after we
are gone. A classic example of how FAST markets move in this modern era.

I was speaking to a design engineer for a digital-to-film
manufacturer.... they have had a recent technology breakthrough, which will allow the
digital to film writing speed to increase by a factor of 1,000 times.... and yet, they can
not get funding or pre-orders. The reason is, the fear of NO FILM, is the deal
breaker. Someone mentioned how the studios have deep pockets....not one studio showed
interest in this technology. This IMO is an indication of how little concern the studios
have for film archiving. Like all things in technology, when the need is strong enough,
solutions can be developed.

As JR mentioned, the size of these film plants really do require
some huge volumes to make color film at the low prices we pay. My guess is, before
films demise, we will see a huge spike in pricing, as the makers will test the waters, and
see if the market can bear higher prices as an alternative to closing.

The small niche B&W makes will probably be around for a long
time. From what I was told though, making color film is a massive undertaking vs.
B&W.... so it seems unlikely these smaller B&W niche companies would jump into such an
endeavor....

Bill

> The hope in the industry has been that as manufacturing costs go up (mainly due to
> reduced production), and manufacturers in areas of higher labor costs could no longer
> afford to make the product, the slack would be taken up in places like China. Now the
> backup seems to be disappearing. Even 500 is not enough personnel to maintain a
> sustainable worldwide production.
>
> Although film manufacturing is not as labor-intensive as many products, there still are
> people needed in such areas as packaging and distribution. And, coating and cutting
> machines need to be maintained. Plus, many of the operations must be done in a
> dust-free controlled atmosphere environment. And, the clerical office staff required
> is not insignificant, due to the complexity of the distribution pattern (although that
> is getting less as the number of retailers is reducing). All of which points away from
> a minimal staff for operations.
>
> As volumes drop, costs go up. As film gets more and more expensive, less and less
> people buy it, which further drives the downward spiral.
>
> I try to remain optimistic, but it is difficult in the face of the numbers.
>
> JR
>
>
> On Fri, Sep 23, 2011 at 7:08 AM, Don Lopp <dlopp@rainier-web.com
> dlopp@rainier-web.com>> wrote:
>
> For what it is worth,on CCTV9, Beijing, this morning,the general manager
> of Lucky Films said that their film division had reduced employment from
> 500 down to 30, as they were switching to producing film for solar
> batteries instead of for photography.
>
> DON
>
>
>
>
> --
> stereoscope3d@gmail.com stereoscope3d@gmail.com>
>
>
>

Subject: Re: lucky film
Date: 2011-09-23 12:24:36
From: Brian Reynolds

Bill G wrote:

> JR
>
> > Thank you for that information, Don. That is not good news at all.
>
> But remember Kodak is still producing
> film in USA..... since they own nearly half of LUCKY film, the
> premise is, when Kodaks volume drops too low for USA production,
> their assets move to LUCKY films, and LUCKY will produce KODAK film
> for the world. Its a logical progression in a declining market.....

Kodak sold their stake in Lucky, and ended their partnership, in 2007.

> The small niche B&W makes will probably be around for a long time.

There are quite a few manufacturers of B&W film. Besides the big
three (Kodak, Ilford, Fujifilm), there are manufacturers in eastern
Europe, and Asia. Go to Freestyle Photo, and there are currently at
least nine different brands of B&W film.

> From what I was told though, making color film is a massive
> undertaking vs. B&W.... so it seems unlikely these smaller B&W
> niche companies would jump into such an endeavor....

If you're interested in seeing how film is made, there was a book
published last year call "Making KODAK Film". The author was a
Worldwide Product-Line Manager for Kodak Professional Films.

--
Brian Reynolds | "It's just like flying a spaceship.
reynolds@panix.com | You push some buttons and see
http://www.panix.com/~reynolds/ | what happens." -- Zapp Brannigan
NAR# 54438 |

Subject: Re: lucky film
Date: 2011-09-23 12:27:30
From: Bill G

> Kodak sold their stake in Lucky, and ended their partnership, in 2007.
>

Yikes....that is not good news, now Kodak has no hand-off strategy..... any link to that
story?

b

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Subject: Re: lucky film
Date: 2011-09-23 13:03:41
From: Brian Reynolds

Bill G wrote:

> Brian Reynolds wrote:
> > Kodak sold their stake in Lucky, and ended their partnership, in 2007.
> >
>
> Yikes....that is not good news, now Kodak has no hand-off
> strategy..... any link to that story?

Just search for "kodak lucky film"

<http://lmgtfy.com/?q=kodak+lucky+film>

It's also on the Wikipedia page for China Lucky Film.

I don't think Lucky was ever a hand off strategy for Kodak.

Every once in a while someone (usually a stock analyst hoping to
manipulate the stock price) will suggest that Kodak sell off their
film business.

It has been speculated that Kodak's (and Fuji's) problem is that the
current production lines are set up to produce large quantities of
film, that in some cases can't be sold off before the next production
run. It was suggested that a smaller manufacturer setting up a new
production line sized for the current market would be profitable at
lower production rates. The biggest problem (other than very few
people wanting to invest in new film production) is that much of the
film production process is proprietary. There are a lot of trade
secrets involved in coating thin emulsions on a plastic base.

You can see this with the Impossible Project. They own a former
Polaroid factory, and have several former Polaroid employees working
with them, but it is still taking a while to get their production
going.

--
Brian Reynolds | "It's just like flying a spaceship.
reynolds@panix.com | You push some buttons and see
http://www.panix.com/~reynolds/ | what happens." -- Zapp Brannigan
NAR# 54438 |

Subject: Re: lucky film
Date: 2011-09-23 14:33:01
From: Bill G

> You can see this with the Impossible Project. They own a former
> Polaroid factory, and have several former Polaroid employees working
> with them, but it is still taking a while to get their production
>

I heard about this... what products are they trying to produce? 4x5 ?

Bill

>
> going.
>
> --
> Brian Reynolds | "It's just like flying a spaceship.
> reynolds@panix.com | You push some buttons and see
> http://www.panix.com/~reynolds/ <http://www.panix.com/%7Ereynolds/> | what happens." --
> Zapp Brannigan
> NAR# 54438 |
>
>

Subject: Re: lucky film
Date: 2011-09-23 16:47:59
From: Brian Reynolds

Bill G wrote:

> Brian Reynolds wrote:
> > You can see this with the Impossible Project. They own a former
> > Polaroid factory, and have several former Polaroid employees working
> > with them, but it is still taking a while to get their production
> > going.
> >
>
> I heard about this... what products are they trying to produce? 4x5 ?

<http://the-impossible-project.com/>

Currently they are producing color and B&W integral film for the
SX-70, 600, and Image/Spectra cameras. They sell them online, in
their own physical stores (New York, Paris, etc.), and I've seen the
film in Adorama.

They are also trying to bring back the large format (4x5, 8x10, 20x24)
peel apart films. They are working with another group in NYC[1] to
get this going.

There was a segment on the TV series "How It's made" a couple of
months ago that included a tour of the factory and showed the
equipment running (in day light so that you could see it). You can
see a short version here:

<http://science.discovery.com/videos/how-its-made-instant-film.html>

I think the full version can be found by searching for "How It's Made:
The Impossible Project" on YouTube.

[1] The 20x24 Studio <http://20x24studio.com/>, who are currently
producing 20x24 peel apart film and operate one of the former
Polaroid 20x24 studios.

--
Brian Reynolds | "It's just like flying a spaceship.
reynolds@panix.com | You push some buttons and see
http://www.panix.com/~reynolds/ | what happens." -- Zapp Brannigan
NAR# 54438 |

Subject: Re: lucky film
Date: 2011-09-23 20:00:26
From: Bill G

> Currently they are producing color and B&W integral film for the
> SX-70, 600, and Image/Spectra cameras. They sell them online, in
> their own physical stores (New York, Paris, etc.), and I've seen the
> film in Adorama.
>

Wow, that is impressive... I must have fallen out of the loop on
this.... thx for posting this...

If they could make high quality color chrome instant film, and join with MF stereo camera,
along with a viewer, I think it would have cult following for a very long time....but very
small cult, unfortunately. The previous color instant emulsions I used were not on par
with E-6 trannie film.... but the B&W positive film in 4x5 (Polaroid brand) was superb....

>
>